Considering the Unthinkable
Why I am not in favor of trading Cade Smith
After getting shutout on consecutive days, and scoring only 4 runs in 4 games, many Guardians fans want answers and fast solutions. Sam Beaudoin wrote succinctly in his blog: the Guardians should sell. I think he writes reasonably when he says:
Now, the decision for Cleveland shouldn’t be an overly difficult one. The fate of this team is fairly evident. They should sell and take advantage of what will likely be a seller’s market.
The Guardians have now lost five straight, scored just four total runs over their last four games, and have been shut out in back-to-back games. They sit at 54-53, 2.5 games behind the White Sox, who also have three games in hand.
Perhaps this is a blessing in disguise. Perhaps this brutal stretch was exactly what was needed to prevent the front office from making a modest buy at the deadline, sneaking into October, and then getting destroyed by a team like the Yankees or Rays.
Because the reality is, this team is not one or two bats away from immediately leapfrogging those teams. They just aren’t.
I emphatically agree with Sam about the offense. The offense is not a marginal bat available away from being a good offense. As I wrote last weekend: Jose and Angel Martinez are not enough to make this offense OK. I also agree with Sam that this front office, and ownership, is not the sort of team which will swing a big trade for a star player at the deadline. The Andrew Miller trade (now a decade old) was the exception which proves the rule. But perhaps more importantly: there are few true difference makers even available at this deadline.
The Front Office Missed Its Chance
If the Front Office wanted to augment the offense the time was the offseason. With expanded playoffs, and a muddled American League, it’s not entirely clear to me who the Front Office could even target at the deadline. Some of the obvious candidates, like Spencer Steer, are also hurt. The Houston Astros are almost assuredly not trading Yordan Alvarez. Looking at the obvious sellers, here are the starting outfielders and first basemen/designated hitters on those teams, meaning teams with records at least 10 wins below .500 (with OPS+ and age in parentheses):
California Angels:
OF: Josh Lowe (28, 70), Mike Trout (34, 145), Jo Adell (27, 97), Jose Siri (30, 125)
1B: Nolan Schanuel (24, 113)
DH: Jorge Soler (34, 87)
Cincinnati Reds:
OF: JJ Bleday (28, 120), TJ Friedl (30, 42), Noelvi Marte (24, 61), Spencer Steer (28, 101)
1B: Sal Stewart (22, 116)
DH: Eugenio Suarez (34, 84)
Colorado Rockies:
OF: Jake McCarthy (28, 118), Cole Carrig (24, 127), Tyler Freeman (27, 73), Troy Johnston (29, 99)
First Base: TJ Rumfield (26, 126)
Designated Hitter: Mickey Moniak (28, 124)
Kansas CIty Royals:
OF: Isaac Collins (28, 105), Kyle Isbel (29, 86), Jac Caglianone (23, 113), Lane Thomas (30, 107)
1B: Vinnie Pasquantino (28, 92)
DH: Salvador Perez (36, 76)
New York Mets:
OF: Juan Soto (27, 160), A.J. Ewing (21, 117), Carson Benge (23, 97), Tyrone Taylor (32, 116)
1B: Mark Vientos (26, 76), Jared Young (30, 106)
DH: Jorge Polanco (32, 20)
Sacramento Athletics:
OF: Tyler Soderstrom (24, 125), Henry Bolte (22, 77), Lawrence Butler (25, 64), Carlos Cortes (29, 109)
1B: Nick Kurtz (23, 145)
DH: Brent Rooker (31, 81)
San Francisco Giants:
OF: Helliot Ramos (26, 104), Drew Gilbert (25, 91), Jung Hoo Lee (27, 118)
1B: Rafael Devers (29, 124)
DH: Bryce Eldridge (21, 130)
OK, there are some potential targets here but this exercise is not done. We need to exclude players who:
The non-performing players
Are on big contracts (Rafael Devers for instance is owed over $100M)
Are young and cost controlled, and therefore unlikely to even be available at the deadline. I will cut off any player with at least 3 years of club control after this season from the list
OK, so who’s left?
California Angels:
OF: Jose Siri (30, 125)
Cincinnati Reds:
OF: JJ Bleday (28, 120), Spencer Steer (28, 101)
Colorado Rockies:
OF: Jake McCarthy (28, 118)
DH: Mickey Moniak (28, 124)
Kansas CIty Royals:
OF: Lane Thomas (30, 107)
New York Mets:
OF: Tyrone Taylor (32, 116)
This is not an awe inspiring list. Granted, there are others we could target. If the Padres decide to sell we could target Ty France (31, 142). If the Cardinals decide to sell we could target Lars Nootbar (28, 104). If the Baltimore Orioles sell we could try for Taylor Ward (32, 111)...again. There are some other targets out there (of course, they could also just as easily play well and be unavailable). But let’s ask ourselves: who in the list of above available hitters is a true difference maker? Not just someone who’s better than our existing bench but truly a great hitter? I think the answer is nobody. Ty France is having that good of a year, but it’s a career year at 31: we should take his performance with a grain of salt.
Furthermore, there are a lot of teams who need offense. The Guardians would have to outbid for these players and be willing to pay for them. That does not sound like our front office. Not only is this a team that is generally unwilling to overpay for players: we rarely want to pay much in the first place. But even if prices were not likely sky high: there is simply not much available. We are looking at lots of Brandon Guyers, not Jay Bruces. There was a time when this front office could have gotten almost anyone they wanted: they missed that window.
What About Non-Major Leaguers?
This is the polite way of asking…what about acquiring a prospect? Someone who has not debuted yet (like we did in 2023). What about…selling? It’s a point Franmil’s EyeBrow (a Twitter personality) made a few days ago. The proposal being to trade Cade Smith (and/or another one of our relievers), take advantage of this same seller’s market, and acquire someone who can help us fix the offense for the long haul. Needless to say I hate the strategy.
To be clear: if we could get a young, cost controlled, hitting outfielder for Cade Smith I would make that trade. If the Kansas City Royals offered us Jac Canglianone for Smith I am making that deal every day of the week. Cade Smith may be the best reliever in baseball but this team has struggled to develop hitting ever since they traded Lindor. The Front Office has had 11 chances (every offseason and deadline since 2020) to do something drastic about it and the best they have done is sign Josh Bell (a solid signing, even if I was never as high on it as others) and trade for Lane Thomas (which worked in October if not in the regular season). On the flip side we are excellent at developing pitchers including bullpen arms (see Holderman, Collin) especially on the cheap. That’s a trade you make.
It’s also why this trade will never happen. Why? Because teams know that young, cost controlled, outfielders are more valuable than bullpen arms! They are aware that Cade Smith is not likely to become the next Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen. The idea that we can flip one of our star pitchers for a young, cost controlled, hitting outfielder (YCCHO, ™) is not new. The same thing was said about Shane Bieber and Corey Kluber. Needless to say we did not get that for either pitcher. The model which, I think, we’re more likely to get is a trade for a true prospect.
The most likely model that I think a Cade Smith trade would follow is the Aaron Civale. We traded Aaron Civale for Kyle Manzardo, a promising hitting prospect. Kyle debuted in 2024 and, while Manzo was solid in 2025: he has not panned out and is still a work in progress. A trade of Smith would assuredly bring us back a better heralded prospect than Civale. But I think the odds that we will receive a major league ready hitter, who slides into our lineup right now and is a finished product are slim to none. Players like that are rarely traded anymore. Certainly not for relievers. In short my issue with this argument is that it requires another team to be stupid.
Now, I will fully concede that I do not follow prospects. I have no opinion on the comparative merits of Josue De Paula compared to Mike Sirota. If someone wants to tell me that Josue De Paula is a can’t miss guy who will assuredly start hitting immediately and be just as good as Chase DeLauter has been this year: I will not argue with you. What I will say is that the Los Angeles Dodgers are a very shrewd organization and if De Paula is that good they are probably not trading him, they are replacing Teoscar Hernandez with De Paula and unloading Hernadez’s contract to make their 2026 team better. They will then seek a different reliever at a lesser cost, perhaps a team willing to take Eduardo Quintero instead of De Paula in a trade.
Now what about trading for the not sure thing and developing that player? I am not, inherently, opposed to the idea of rebuilding (I supported the C.C. Sabathia trade in 2008 for instance). But this team is not in the same position as we were in 2008. Furthermore: we then need to depend on a team, which has a long history of struggling to develop hitters, to develop said player. In short: we’re at the Kyle Manzardo strategy. That is not a short term fix: it’s a long term one. In my view there is simply no “fix the offense quick” solution which involves trading Cade Smith, unless you get a team willing to trade from their Major League roster.
A Trade I like Better
I think a better idea would be to try to find a team with an established hitter they can afford to move, which needs bullpen help, and try to work a deal at the Major League level. Those deals are incredibly hard to pull off (with good reason). The corresponding team needs to have a player they think is expendable and is also good enough to justify trading the best reliever in baseball for, who is also cost controlled. The Pittsburgh Pirates come to mind as a partner: they need bullpen help badly, are finally good, and have a bevy of young hitters who could make some sense. Some I like better than others.
Would the Pirates consider moving Oneil Cruz for Cade Smith? True: Cruz is on the IL right now, but he has 2 more years of control left (via arbitration), is a strong hitter in center field (which would let us keep Steven Kwan in left…or pursue a trade of Kwan if we want to give Khalil Watson some runway). I would suggest Bryan Reynolds and some additional prospects, but Reynolds is older (31), and owed a bunch of money. I think Cade is worth a lot more than him. Spencer Horwitz is a solid hitter, and would fit our roster…but again I think Cade is worth more. Not a perfect fit.
Before they went into freefall the Miami Marlins may fit: Heiberto Hernandez is young, and a strong hitter to start his career. The Marlins need bullpen help desperately, Smith would stabilize that bullpen. The Nats also need bullpen help, although there is not a great fit offensively (at least that I think Washington would move). The biggest puzzle here being: while the idea makes some sense, it’s even harder to find a match in this kind of trade.
What are we Building Towards?
There are trades for Cade Smith that I can envision accepting: but they are not trades that I anticipate ever being offered. If a team offers us someone we can slide right into our lineup now, and is a difference maker, I would happily eat crow. But I think a more plausible outcome, if we trade Cade, is we acquire a prospect who is not a sure thing. Someone who will take some work. Even if they’re better than Manzardo, even if we get more than one: it’s not going to be a sure thing. It will take work, and developing hitters is just not something the Guardians have succeeded at in recent history.
I would usually also point out that Cade Smith is a star, and trading stars hurts fanbase morale, but this fanbase has already been rocked by trades so many times that I am not sure how big of an impact it would have anyway. Outside of Jose Ramirez none of the players on this roster really connect, and while trading Cade Smith likely does not improve fanbase morale: the front office has traded so many players away that I doubt it impacts morale anymore. I suspect most fans would view this with the same resignation we have felt for years. Fans no longer expect this team to excite them with how they improved the team.
But more importantly: if we trade Smith like we traded Bieber and Civale then what is the plan? We have nobody who can realistically replace Cade Smith; in fact the team should be in the market for another stout reliever. What good is it for us to trade Cade Smith for a hitting prospect to just then need to turn around and acquire a reliever to replace him? The Guardians signed Jose Ramirez to two extensions since they traded Lindor and they have not built around him effectively. When, exactly, does this team intend to have a team worth investing in instead of taking from? When is the team going to take a look at trying to win a World Series instead of hoping the team is good enough to sneak into October?
Which is not to say that there are no scenarios where a Cade Smith trade makes sense. If the team had no hope of contending: I would be in favor of trading Smith. But the 2026 Cleveland Guardians are not the 2002 Cleveland Indians. Or the 2008 Cleveland Indians. Or the 2009 Cleveland Indians. We’re, currently, in line for a playoff spot. The team should have better days ahead with Jose back, Kwan hitting and potential improvements from Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana. Why give up on it now?
I don’t think this team is trading Cade Smith. That would be unusually pessimistic for this team. I am sure the Dolans would still like one final October run before they turn over the team to David Blitzer. That’s at least a few more games of ticket revenue (where the tickets cost more) that they can squeeze some profit out of before they become minority owners. While the team could make the playoffs after trading Smith: it would be a heck of a lot harder. If we sell at the deadline I think others like Hunter Gaddis are more likely to get moved.
I still hope we don’t do it. I don’t think it will end the way those envisioning it think.
-BenjaminJ