Since the enshrinement of Roy Halladay in 2019 the Hall of Fame community has engaged in a slow rolling debate: what does a starting pitcher look like anymore? When Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw retire (and all three will retire eventually) we may see the death of the 200 win pitcher, and the BBWAA has not inducted a single starting pitcher with fewer than 200 wins since Sandy Koufax, and he was an anomaly. But facts are facts: pitchers' careers look different now than they did before, it used to be that the game was stocked with pitchers who ‘won’ lots of games but fell well short of Cooperstown. Now maybe the best and the luckiest will get there, but they’re critically endangered. This year Felix Hernandez may become something of a cause celebre among those anxious about the death of the starter. I am skeptical, instead I think the better question that should be asked is are we ignoring relief pitchers?
In the modern game relievers are taking up a larger role than ever, and chewing up more innings. It seems obvious that if starters are taking up a less prominent role, then we need to honor the players filling the gap: and those players are all relief pitchers. While relief usage has exploded, it’s not quite fair to say that relievers have filled the gap in Hall of Fame inductions.
There have been 25 starting pitchers inducted into the Hall of Fame who debuted post integration, and only 9 relievers. If we break this down by half decade relievers have, started, to close the gap recently:
By ‘close the gap’ I mean: ‘caught up on inductions’ and the future for relievers in the Hall looks grimmer than starters. C.C. Sabathia and Billy Wagner will both almost assuredly get inducted this year (keeping the number even) but there are at least four more starters likely to earn induction to Cooperstown within 6-7 years (depending on when Kershaw, Scherzer and Verlander want to retire). After Wagner: there are no likely relievers on the horizon. At one point Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen appeared on track, but Kimbrel’s career has since gone off the rails. Jansen could still make the leap, but he remains unsigned this offseason.
I am not sure if Francisco Rodriguez can join Wagner in the Hall; he’s off to a rough start. However, unlike Jonathan Papelbon and Joe Nathan he’s at least held on (another case of mildly better timing). I think K-Rod has a better case than most, but he continues a theme of borderline candidates getting discussed over more worthy players.
Was Francisco Rodriguez Ever Great?
As a young man K-Rod was as dominant a closer as you could want: he debuted young and in 2002, as a rookie, played a crucial part in the Anaheim Angels winning their first championship. Two years later he was an All-Star sporting a sub-2 ERA saving games. He would lead the AL in saves three out of the next four seasons including a stunning year where he broke the single season saves record with 62 saves, nearly ⅔ of the Angels’ total.
The 8 seasons K-Rod pitched for Anaheim were superb, he led the league in saves three times and posted an excellent line:
2.46 ERA (ERA+ 174) with 289 Saves in 557 Innings, 698 K-256 BB, 1.187 WHIP
I think it’s clear that K-Rod was not the best closer in baseball over this period; obviously Mariano Rivera still eclipsed him, and I would argue that Joe Nathan (ERA+ 204, 260 Saves) & Billy Wagner (ERA+ 212, 197 Saves) were more dominant. However, unlike both Wagner & Nathan: Rodriguez was healthy all 8 of those seasons, and K-Rod finishes 2nd in fWAR behind only Rivera.
In short: yes, I think K-Rod was great. The question for Francisco was two fold: how does his greatness compare to others, and did it last long enough?
On the first question, K-Rod boasts some strengths. His record 62 saves in a single season is notable, only two pitchers are within 5 of that number (Bobby Thigpen and Edwin Diaz). He also ranks 3rd all time in 40 save seasons with 6 behind Mariano Rivera & Trevor Hoffman with 9. He ranks ahead of ballot mate Billy Wagner (2) and the recently dumped Joe Nathan (4) as well as the still active Kenley Jansen (4) and Craig Kimbrel (5).
While K-Rod’s 148 ERA+ does not reach Wagner’s 187 or Mariano Rivera’s (Major League record) 202, it does compare favorably to the other Hall of Famer’s:
-Hoyt Wilhelm, 147
-Trevor Hoffman, 141
-Bruce Sutter, 136
-Dennis Eckersley, 136 (as a reliever)
-Lee Smith, 132
-Goose Gossage, 126
-Rollie Fingers, 120
Did Francisco Rodriguez have Staying Power?
For a reliever in the Hall of Fame? Not really, he only pitched 16 seasons, which is low compared to other Hall of Fame relievers, especially since he debuted at 20. Trevor Hoffman & Mariano Rivera both pitched into their 40s, and Billy Wagner retired at 38 (at the top of his game). K-Rod was effectively done right where Jansen and Kimbrel are right now, and as a result he fell short of 500 saves (a plateau only two pitchers have reached). So, strangely enough, while K-Rod 6th all time in Saves: he actually accomplished it in a short time frame.
I would add: how K-Rod’s career ended sticks in the mind. After leaving the Mets he struggled to first for the Brewers, then the Orioles & Tigers. He did manage to knock down some empty saves for the Brewers and Tigers, and notched his historic 400th save in his last season, but it all unraveled inauspiciously with an ERA over 7 pitching for a lost Tigers team.
Was K-Rod an Inalienable Part of Baseball History?
Breaking Bobby Thigpen’s single season saves record certainly sticks in the mind, he was also probably baseball’s most exciting young closer from 2002-2009. In some ways: he reminds me of Craig Kimbrel, rolling off 4 straight 40 save seasons from 2005-2008. He became the 5th member of the 400 Saves club; a club which still currently only has 8 members, with (maybe) one potential entrant in the near future (Aroldis Chapman).
K-Rod also burst onto the scene in 2002 winning two games in the ALDS against New York (although he only pitched well in Games 3 & 4). He also nailed down a Hold ahead of Troy Percival in Game 2 against the Twins, along with pitching crucial innings in Games 3 & 4. In the World Series that year he pitched fairly well and helped lock down some wins for the Angels’ first World Series title in franchise history.
Certainly, Rodriguez is not the most accomplished postseason reliever: that would be Mariano Rivera. However, he’s definitely ahead of Billy Wagner, Joe Nathan & Trevor Hoffman: all of whom had fairly bad Octobers. He falls short of Jonathan Papelbon, who boasts a career 1.00 ERA in 18 appearances (with 12 Games Finished, although he went 17 appearances without surrendering a run). But his October career is fairly strong.
Conclusion
I feel similarly about Francisco Rodriguez that I do about Bobby Abreu. Most importantly I feel there are several relievers I would place in the Hall of Fame ahead of him, most notably: Billy Wanger (who is conveniently likely to earn induction this year). After Wagner I feel Joe Nathan was clearly a better closer at his best than K-Rod, although due to his late career start he falls behind in saves. Beyond modern closers: Firpo Marberry became a pioneer for relievers, of sorts, and was a powerful weapon for the Washington Senators in the 1920s & ‘30s.
There is also the question of whether there should be more relievers in the Hall of Fame at all. One argument I am torn about is why K-Rod should get induction while short career starters barely get a second glance. I have a tough time arguing Rodriguez was a better pitcher than, say, Johan Santana (or for that matter Felix Hernandez). Personally there’s not much to say about this other than we don’t deal with the world as we’d like it but the world as it is; lowering the standards for starters would result in dozens of more starting pitchers entering the Hall, and would diametrically change how we view them forever. On the flipside, we are still developing a standard for relievers.
In short I do believe Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez could probably have done K-Rod’s job, while I am deeply skeptical Rodriguez could start games. Does that change their Hall of Fame cases? That’s a judgment call. There is a part of me that feels Mariano Rivera should be the only reliever in the Hall of Fame, but he’s not and he won’t ever be alone. Which leads me to the conclusion that excluding Rodriguez for the crime of not being a starting pitcher is more unfair than Johan Santana not getting inducted.
I’ll talk more about a new standard for starting pitchers when I get to Felix Hernandez.
-Benjamin, J