Offseason Week 5: Crickets
Thoughts on some free agents I can see Cleveland signing, and some more Hall of Fame Thoughts
It feels like the season ended ages ago and yet almost nothing has happened. Sure the team DFA’d George Valera, re-signed Austin Hedges, and found a replacement hitting coach…but come on, little of this matters terribly much. The Cavaliers are already off to a torrid start, the Cleveland Browns have switched quarterbacks, Thanksgiving turkey has been served, and MLB’s GMs have not even pre-heated the proverbial oven yet to 350 degrees.
Such is the way of baseball, particularly for small market teams. Teams like Cleveland wait for the big buys to shop before rummaging through the bargain bin for the turkeys nobody wanted for Thanksgiving. It will probably be a month or so, I would guess, before Cleveland starts to get clarity on the market. We are not signing Juan Soto, or Teoscar Hernandez, or Corbin Burnes. We are going to see how the market shuffles and pick up what’s left: we’ve been doing this for years, and sadly we are destined to wait.
Some Free Agent Targets
As we wait I do wonder who Cleveland could potentially target. Barring a surprising market collapse, I do not see Cleveland going after the bigger names in free agency. There are still some intriguing players who will likely fall in our price range. Some of the names I will be watching this offseason:
I do not think Boyd will cost too much. MLB Trade Rumors projects him for 2 years, $25M which seems reasonable. At 34, he is unlikely to cash in on too long of a commitment, but his 40 innings of work proved he remains effective. I am skeptical he can replicate his 2.95 ERA, but even if he only matched his projections (4.05 ERA) he would be a strong addition to a rotation in desperate need of innings. He is also more likely than Shane Bieber to stay healthy, although he is coming off of Tommy John surgery.
Boyd enjoyed his time in Cleveland, and his three postseason starts were the best on our staffs’ this season. Given the youth on the roster, a little experience could go a long way.
Conforto is another solid but uninspiring addition. He can still hit a bit, has some power (ISO of .212 last year), and plays the outfield. He bats left-handed, so we can pair him with Lane Thomas or Jhonkensy Noel (preferably Lane Thomas). Like Boyd: he should not cost too much, and at 31 he should not receive more than a one or two year deal.
Kepler is a long time Minnesota Twin, on the wrong side of 30. He’s bounced between rock solid and slightly below average the last few years. However, he’s typically been an above average hitter against righties, which was our biggest problem last year. Since he’s 31, and coming off a weaker season, he should not cost too much, and can fit in nicely with either Lane Thomas or Noel.
I personally think the presence of players like Carlos Santana on the free agent market are why we will not trade Josh Naylor. However, in the event we do trade Josh Naylor: Carlos Santana would be a nice pickup to replace him. He still walks a lot at 38, and even hit 23 home runs again, so there’s a little pop left in his bat too. At 38 he also won his first career Gold Glove Award, so ‘Los would be a defensive improvement on Josh Naylor. If he makes about what he made last year, he would cost a few million less than Josh too. It’s not a sexy pick, but it plugs a hole.
That’s It?
If none of those options appealed to you, well: I empathize. But those are the realistic options. Cleveland enters the offseason with an uncertain amount of money to spend. Personally I think the odds are likely that Cleveland likely either keeps payroll around where it was last year, or even drops it a little. There are some factors working in our favor, including millions extra in postseason revenue. Without the #1 pick (as Locked on Guardians podcast pointed out last week): we can expect the team to spend millions less on the draft. However, the team will also lose tens of millions from the end of its contract with Bally Sports.
Personally I think the TV revenue is a bigger deal. The postseason revenue is a single injection of cash, which cannot be guaranteed for 2025. The draft occurs every year, and while I am sure the team took some money from the big league roster to fund the draft: that investment likely does not factor in too much. Yearly payrolls are more likely to be driven by regular sources of income. It also means any money spent will likely be short, hence why I focused on players likely to sign one or two year deals.
Overall, not too much to do as we wait for the hot stove to pick up. With Blake Snell, Yusei Kikuchi and Tommy Edman signing, perhaps we’ll see some more movement across the free agent market. But lately these markets tend to develop slowly. Juan Soto will likely need to sign first, for the other dominoes to start to fall. Until then prepare for more quiet weekends.
What it Would Take…
As the season ends, I want to reflect a little on some players and what it would take for them to make it to Cooperstown going forward. These are not predictions, but thought experiments on what some players in a Cleveland uniform would have to do to make it to the Hall of Fame.
Emmanuel Clase
Clase has led the league in saves three consecutive seasons. He’s been the game’s best reliever since 2022, perhaps 2021. While this is a strong start for Clase, it would take a lot more for him to make it to Cooperstown. One metric to keep an eye on is the number of seasons with an ERA below 3, and at least 30 saves. This is not an advanced metric, nor is it perfect, but it’s about as concise a definition for ‘good reliever season’ as you’re gonna get. So far he has 2. Mariano River had 14 such seasons, Trevor Hoffman 11; Billy Wagner (who is likely to get in this cycle) had 9. So a good starting point would be that: Clase would need 7 more seasons of at least 30 saves and an ERA under 2. That would mean he collects at least 368 saves, and an ERA around where Wagner and Hoffman’s was, which would give him a decent start.
Overall if Clase did that, I suspect he would finish his career with at least 400 saves, and if he had any other meat on that bone could have as many as 500. Either way: he’s a long way to Cooperstown. Seven more seasons means Clase is at least 33. That gives him time to tack on bigger career statistics.
Andres Gimenez
With his 3rd Gold Glove, and another solid defensive season, Andres is building a case as one of the games best defensive players. He has already collected a Platinum Glove, and could collect more. Second base is not shortstop; there are not that many defensive first players in the Hall of Fame at second. In fact the only below average offensive player in the Hall of Fame at second base is Bill Mazeroski, and he hit a certain famous home run to help his case.
Andres is not Mazeroski, at least not yet, but he could turn into him if he’s not careful. The first thing Andres would have to do is keep winning Gold Gloves: if Andres won as many Gold Gloves as Roberto Alomar, say, he’d have a good starting point. But more importantly, I think Andres needs to prove 2024 is his offensive nadir, and bounce back to at least 2023 offensive levels. Andres is a good baserunner, and a superb defender: that combo alongside a solid bat can make for a Hall of Fame case in 6-7 years.
Jose Ramirez
Jose has already built a superb resume and ranks 21st all time in JAWS at third base. What does he need to do? Exactly what he’s been doing since 2016. If he keeps up this pace for even 2-3 more seasons I think his Hall of Fame case could become undeniable. There are two things I would love to see Jose do (well, besides win an MVP):
-Win a Gold Glove
Much of what makes Jose great is his all around play. His hitting and baserunning are obvious, and do not need further recognition. But Jose is also a great defender, and that’s tougher to analyze. I think a Gold Glove would make it more obvious that he’s an all around great player.
-Reach 300-300
There are only 8 (current) players in the 300-300 club and Jose is the obvious next potential member. He is about 1 ½ seasons away from reaching both the 300 HR and 300 SB milestones. That would also help cement his case, in my view. The next players I see as potentials are Ohtani and Acuna, and we shall see how Ohtani’s baserunning progresses when he returns to the mound and if Acuna bounces back.
-Benjamin, J