Spring training fast approaches, the Cleveland Guardians truck just left the facility, but in the deepest part of the offseason: I am still thinking about the Hall of Fame (and ancillary, related, topics). So for fun I want to mimic Jay Jaffe a bit, but I will add some flare to my projections. Jay only projected the BBWAA ballot, I will try to project the Small Era Committees as well. For this exercise I will assume the Hall will not change its current process for either the BBWAA and the committees. I will also add in what cap a player will wear in Cooperstown, and whether their number will get retired (and by whom). To lay the groundwork a bit, here is the 2025 induction:
BBWAA Ballot: C.C. Sabathia (New York, Yankees), Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle), Billy Wagner (Houston)
Classic Baseball Committee: Dick Allen (Philadelphia), Dave Parker (Pittsburgh)
Numbers Retired: Sabathia (Cleveland & New York), Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle), Dave Parker (Pittsburgh
Seattle already announced Ichiro’s number retirement for this summer, which was expected. I am curious if they have Randy Johnson on hand as he wore 51 before Ichiro signed with the Mariners. No word yet from the Yankees or Guardians on C.C. Sabathia (I will say: Cleveland hinted heavily that they would retire Jim Thome’s number leading up to his induction, nothing of the sort has happened for C.C.) but I anticipate Sabathia to get it eventually. I would add Philadelphia for Dick Allen, but they retired his number a few years ago. Not sure about Dave Parker: we shall see. Finally, while writing this article: Houston announced they will retire Billy Wagner’s number.
2026
BBWAA Ballot: Carlos Beltran (New York, Mets)
Contemporary Baseball Committee (Players): Jeff Kent (San Francisco)
Numbers Retired: Carlos Beltran (New York, Mets)
No big players hit the ballot next year, and Carlos Beltran fell just short this year: I think he makes a huge leap; he has less than 5% to make up and nothing stands in his way. Beltran’s support has jumped at least 10% every year. There’s a decent chance Andruw Jones also takes the leap, but his support has creeped more than jumped, he fell 9 points short but has only gained about 5 points the last 2 cycles. Nobody else is particularly close to induction, but I do think this cycle will tell us who has the BBWAA’s attention and will make gains: expect every returning candidate to gain support.
This is also the first year that Jeff Kent will be eligible for induction, and I think he waltzes into the Hall of Fame. Like Fred McGriff: he fell well short on the BBWAA ballot, but he leads all second basemen in home runs, and I suspect that will carry the day. I am skeptical either Beltran or Kent will get their numbers retired, but it’s possible. I feel slightly more confident in Beltran than Kent, so put him down; I would add there’s a chance the Royals also retire his number. Beltran played for a lot of teams.
2027
BBWAA Ballot: Andruw Jones (Atlanta), Buster Posey (San Francisco)
Contemporary Baseball Committee (Non-Players): Dusty Baker (No Insignia)
Numbers Retired: Buster Posey (San Francisco)
Buster Posey should waltz into the Hall of Fame. His career numbers are a bit lacking given he retired young at 34, but he was such a force captaining 3 World Series winning teams. He won an MVP in 2012, Rookie of the Year in 2010, and while this combination is not as predictive of induction as you might think: it’s still potent. I do not think voters are in the mood to hold a short career against Buster, simply because he was so good. I suppose it’s possible he has to wait, but the treatment of Joe Mauer makes me bullish on his chances.
The Braves already retired Jones’ number, otherwise he would be on here as well. Buster’s number is a shoe in for retirement. He is currently leading the Giants organization, which is another indicator on how well thought of he is by San Francisco.
2028
BBWAA Ballot: Yadier Molina (St. Louis), Albert Pujols (St. Louis)
Classic Baseball Committee: Steve Garvey (Los Angeles), Tommy John (New York, Yankees)
Numbers Retired: Steve Garvey (Los Angeles)
Albert Pujols knocked 3,000 hits and mashed 700 home runs: he’ll waltz in first ballot; I think his coattails will bring Yadier along with him. It’s possible at this point someone like Chase Utley will get in too, but I’ll stick with just these two for now. Both of their numbers are already retired by the Cardinals.
The Classic Baseball Committee is tougher to predict, but there are two things I think are certain. First and most importantly I think the Hall of Fame really wants the small committees to induct living players. It’s better for the induction ceremonies and frankly is better for the players. There is vindication which comes from induction after death, but much of the savor is gone. So I fully expect the Hall to try to force any small committee to focus on living players.
The second point requires a bit of a story which begins with Bill Mazeroski who was inducted by the Veteran’s Committee in 2001. He was the last living player inducted into the Hall of Fame by a committee until 2018 when Jack Morris (after falling short 15 times on the BBWAA ballot) earned induction alongside Alan Trammell. From 2018 to now small committees have inducted 12 players, 9 of them living, and there’s a pattern on who got inducted: they almost all received their full allotment of time on the BBWAA, and were considered a few times afterwards, with two exceptions:
Ted Simmons, who fell off the writer’s ballot immediately
Harold Baines, who hung around for a few years
Which brings us to the ballot: I think any player likely to earn induction will first: 1) be alive at the time of the announcement and 2) have been heavily considered by the BBWAA & small era committees, and 3) spent most of their careers before 1980. There are only a handful of candidates which meet this criteria:
-Steve Garvey, 76 and considered 19 times
-Tommy John, 81, and considered 19 times
-Dave Concepion, 76, and considered 17 times
-Mickey Lolich, 84, and considered 17 times
I may be missing someone, but the fact of the matter is: there aren’t many living candidates left from this era of baseball. The oldest living ballplayer as of this writing is Art Shallock, who debuted in 1951: lots of baseball has passed us by, which leads me to wondering who would get in from this group? The obvious answers are Steve Garvey and Tommy John. That is not to say others could not earn induction, but I think the Hall is focusing its efforts on living players. I will predict this is the last cycle the Hall uses this framework.
I don’t think the Yankees will retire John’s number: they have a liberal number retirement policy and have had decades to do so, I do think the Dodgers would retire Garvey’s number: the Padres have already done so.
2029
BBWAA Ballot: Miguel Cabrera (Detroit), Zack Greinke (Kansas City), Chase Utley (Philadelphia), Joey Votto (Cincinnati)
Small Committee Ballot: Don Mattingly (New York, Yankees
)Numbers Retired: Miguel Cabrera (Detroit), Zack Greinke (Kansas City), Chase Utley (Philadelphia), Joey Votto (Cincinnati)
And now we have another flood. Miguel Cabrera and Zack Greinke are obvious first ballot Hall of Famers. Miggy has 3,000 hits and 500 home runs, basically a sure fire combo, and Greinke is one of the best pitchers of his era. Both should sail into the Hall of Fame without too much argument. I am a little more skeptical of Votto, but the electorate has changed, and will continue to evolve, and become more friendly to players like Votto: good advanced stats, even if his home run total is low. I think this is the year Utley breaks through, but time will tell. All four will get their numbers retired swiftly.
I think this is the year Don Mattingly breaks through; there’s a dearth of good BBWAA candidates, the only guys who will have fallen off by now are Omar Vizquel and Manny Ramirez: neither are likely to be well considered. Andy Pettitte will be ineligible on this committee, which opens the door to some older players. It’s also possible the small committee changes, but I will stick with Mattingly. He spent 10 years on the writer’s ballot and has appeared a few times on small committee ballots. He’s the kind of guy they’ve liked, and I think he’ll slide in nicely. The Yankees have already retired his number.
2030
BBWAA Ballot: Felix Hernandez (Seattle)
Small Committee Ballot: Bruce Bochy (San Francisco), Terry Francona (No Insignia)
Numbers Retired: Bruce Bochy (Texas), Bruce Bochy (San Francisco), Felix Hernandez (Seattle), Terry Francona (Boston)
We are now entering more of a gray area, and 2030 is a weak year for new candidates. So a good year for someone to break through: I am guessing Felix will get in on what will be his 5th on the ballot. Some good pitchers, but so many writers are talking about changing the standards for starters, and he is so beloved, that I think he gets in without too much of a fight. It’s a guess, but I don’t want to be too shy: the whole point is to ponder what is possible, not just list out the first ballot Hall of Famers (that’s easy).
I am guessing this will still be a non-player year for the small committee, which means Bochy and Francona should get in here: Tito has signed a 3 year deal, but I would be surprised if he keeps going for too much longer and a manager at his age is eligible 1 year after he retires. Bochy should also be retired by then too. I suspect Bochy gets his number retired in several places, but most notably Texas and San Francisco. The Giants have not reissued Bochy’s number since he left. Francona is harder: I am 100% confident the Red Sox will retire his number once he’s inducted, I am less confident about Cleveland since he wore two numbers.
-Benjamin, J