Roller Coaster Week 16
Catching up and Juggling Many Hobbies
I enjoy lots of hobbies especially during the summer. I lift weights, both for fitness and for fun. I play golf. I walk my dog. I listen to podcasts voraciously (usually while lifting weights or walking my dog). I travel both for work and for fun. I watch baseball (and write about it). I also love to play Magic: the Gathering (MTG). There is a lot that I enjoy doing, and balancing all of them is difficult for me. For years I dropped some hobbies in favor of others; in 2023 I missed an entire golf season due to an injury so I spent more time in the gym and walking (not the best year for baseball). This year I have spent a lot more time in the gym and traveling; trying to get in what I can before a big change in my life this winter.
It’s been a weird summer for me and baseball. I started the season in Australia and missed several weeks in a completely different time zone. I have also traveled a lot for work (and for fun) this summer, keeping me away from the team. My handicap has dropped a bit, so I have been eager to get on the golf course more than usual. I also got the bug to really start playing Magic again (which I had not played much in years). As a result, the only summer I watched Cleveland baseball less than this summer was 2020 when the Indians only played 60 games.
Juggling lots of hobbies is simply hard. Take the 4th of July Weekend. I found the time to get my thoughts out on our country’s 250th Birthday (a post more about hope than the Guardians), but I did not write about some of the great things happening for the club. But I spent that weekend on the beach with friends celebrating the 4th, my husband’s birthday, and another friend’s birthday. I was running around and did not have the time to watch the Guardians. The following week I went to Philadelphia for a work trip…I then had a tee time in the afternoon on Sunday, and an MTG tournament on Friday.
I feel bad I made less time for one of my favorite hobbies and find myself here at the break feeling like I need to play catch up. It’s been a weird year to mostly miss. But I am enjoying taking a full stock of where the Guards are at as the All-Star Game looms. So here are some thoughts on what has worked for the Guards and what has not so far this season.
What’s Worked: Playing the Kids
The Guardians started the year with Chase DeLauter in right field, called up Travis Bazzana early, and have also called up Franco Aleman and Parker Messick. Travis Bazzana and Parker Messick both made the All-Star team (more on this tomorrow). CDL & Baz have both found some success in Cleveland, with CDL leading the team (amongst qualified hitters) in all three triple slash lines, home runs and RBIs. He’s unequivocally been the most consistent hitter for the Guards in the first half. Here’s his full stats for reference:
.278/.345/.448 (OPS+ 122) 11 HR, 46 RBI, 16 2B
That .448 SLG does not look like much but the last time Cleveland had a qualified outfielder with a SLG that high was 2018 when Michael Brantley slugged in 143 games (his last year in Cleveland). The Guards have searched for an outfield slugger ever since Dr. Smooth left. Overall, Chase is the most exciting hitter to debut in Cleveland since Francisco Lindor in 2015. He’s delivered off the bat, playing mostly every day and (knocking on wood) only missed a little bit of time on the IL. It would be hard to have hoped for more from Chase this season.
More impressively is he’s adjusting. He started the year hot, won AL Player of the Week honors the first week of the season, and then after the home opener got ice cold. He hit the IL on June 13th with Jose but since he returned he’s batted .339/.381/.610(!), scorching hot headed into the All-Star break. The combination of starting hot, getting cold, and then adjusting is key. That’s how every season goes for regulars in the majors. Assuming health (finding a different wood table to bang) I expect CDL to lead the offense in the second half.
Travis Bazzana is currently in the ‘cold’ spell part of his debut. He started out hot, hot enough to earn the All-Star nod, but has cooled off dramatically. He’s batting only .154/.246/.212 (never a good sign when the OBP is higher than the SLG) the past 2 weeks. Since the calendar turned to June Travis has been a below average hitter (.193/.282/.341). This is to be expected: even the best hitters will go through slumps. I expect Bazzana will also break out of this and be a big part of the team’s offense in the second half.
While CDL and Baz are definitely exciting: I am most impressed with Parker Messick. He deserves at least a look for the AL Cy Young Award this year (too early to say for sure how that will pan out). But Messick ranks:
3rd in WAR
4th in ERA
4th in ERA+
7th in Innings Pitched
8th in WHIP
Parker is not a strikeout pitcher, nor is he the most elite in control, but he does a good job limiting damage. He’s been superb, the most consistent starter in our rotation…and honestly I would hand him the ball in Game 1 of any postseason series.
I also cannot leave without talking about Brayan Rocchio. He’s really stepped up too. I always preferred Rocchio to Arias, and this year he’s put it together showing us why he was one of Cleveland’s top prospects for years. He’s consistently played well and, besides a down June, been arguably the team’s steadiest presence in the lineup. No he’s not spectacular in any facet of the game (probably why he did not make the All-Star team) but he’s played well defensively, hit the ball well, he’s even came around on the basepaths after several bonehead plays in past seasons. I expected little from Rocchio: but he’s proved me wrong.
I could name others too. Joey Cantillo has solidified himself a rotation spot. Franco Aleman has been great in limited time. Khalil Watson has shown some flashes, Angel Martinez I wrote about already, and Slade Cecconi has been on a roll since he gave up 5 runs on May 2nd. Cleveland will always rely on their young players so long as the Dolans remain the owners of the team. This season several rookies and youngsters have grown and developed and it’s been great to see.
What Has Worked: the Pitching
Cleveland has used fewer starters than any team in the Majors. We entered the year with Tanner Bibee, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi, Parker Messick and Gavin Williams as our starters. We enter the break with the same rotation. That just doesn’t happen in the modern game and is a far cry from 2023 and 2024 when the team scrambled for anyone to eat up innings (including pitching the aging Carlos Carrasco long past his sell-by date). The team traded for Alex Cobb, who was clearly not healthy and signed Matt Boyd (who turned a few strong months into a rich contract from the Cubs).
The Guardians rank 5th in the AL in ERA (3rd in ERA+), 3rd in innings pitched and 1st in strikeout rate. This is not just a strong cadre of starters: the bullpen is also stout with All-Star Cade Smith (leading MLB in Saves) leading the way. I think Vogt has leaned a little too heavily on Matt Festa and Shawn Armstrong but Erik Sabrowski is awesome when healthy, Hunter Gaddis has bounced back solidly, and the team continues to find diamonds in the rough with Colin Holderman and now Franco Aleman filling in as set-up men.
Even when the team had Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez batting in the same lineup: the pitching was always this team’s backbone. I worried earlier in the year that the team lacked top of the rotation talent (and in some ways I stand by that: it’s too early in Parker’s career to assume he will keep this up, and he rarely pitches deeply into games) but anyone would take 5 solid starters. I think you could hand the ball to any of them in any postseason game and not feel terrible even if they don’t match up well against Tarik Skubal.The bullpen could use another strong arm, but it’s strong enough. This is a strong pitching staff, and I expect it will get better. Daniel Espino debuted and he’s too talented to not figure it out, and if the team makes a move: I bet it’s for a bullpen arm.
What Hasn’t Worked
Several kids have played well, but not all of them. The brief Cooper Ingle experiment in Left Field ended in disaster. Bo Naylor played so badly he got demoted and the Guards swung a trade for Patrick Bailey (arguably the best defensive catcher in baseball). Petey Halpin (OPS+ 23), Khalil Watson (OPS+ 58), and Kyle Manzardo (OPS+ 89) have all disappointed for the Guards this year. This is what happens when you rely on young players: some may hit but many (arguably most) won’t. Well, this is what we’re seeing (and no I am not saying they won’t figure it out).
There are three players whom I find most disappointing this year: Steven Kwan, Kyle Manzardo and Rhys Hoskins.
Steven Kwan has had a terrible year. He struggled offensively in the second half last year and that got worse this year. It’s almost hard to write what he’s hitting this season: .225/.322/.282. As I said about Baz above: it’s never a good sign when your OBP is higher than your SLG and, while a .322 OBP isn’t terrible it’s not good enough to justify a lineup spot. The only saving grace for Kwan is that he remains an elite defender, and plays both center and left field well. I am not sure if Kwan can win another Gold Glove but he’s been good enough to do so when on the field. I am hoping that Kwan’s recent play (a .309/.406/.418 batting line since June 22nd) is more indicative of what we can expect from Kwan in the second half. That is propped up by a .347 BABIP. Overall…Kwan’s power has simply evaporated. I hope he has figured it out.
Next is Kyle Manzardo. I was never a huge Manzardo fan, but 2025 put some of my doubts to rest. But like Kwan: Manzo has simply not hit for enough power to justify himself. In 2025 he slugged .455 with a .221 ISO. This year it’s .359 with a .144. That’s just not good enough. The only good thing I can say about it is it is ahead of Josh Naylor (who has really struggled in the first year of his extension in Seattle). Ironically Manzardo’s glove has dramatically improved and it’s the only reason his bWAR remains positive on the season. Manzo is young, and the team can’t quite give up on him: but the team needs more. I will say if the team can find a first baseman at the deadline I am not opposed to the team benching him and re-evaluating later.
Finally we have Rhys Hoskins. Hoskins has his strengths: he’s walking a ton. More than he ever has in his career. In July he also hit some key homers. He’s not worthless. But…Rhys is best utilized as a bench bat, and he got far too much time as a starter in the first half. He was miscast as a full time DH and bluntly this team just needs more from an offseason acquisition. I like when Rhys Hoskins is my primary bench bat to provide some right handed thump off the bench. This team has used guys like that in the past (see Guyer, Brandon and Giambi, Jason). I don’t agree with bWAR: I think Hoskins has made the team better. But nobody has been our DH more than Hoskins this season! Chris Antonetti said that nobody would take an offer from them because they could not guarantee the playing time. I am sure that if they gave someone else the same playing time they are giving Rhys they’d be thrilled. My #1 pick for an upgrade at the deadline is DH. It’s a clear need that I don’t expect to get better internally.
Putting it All Together
The Guardians are in 2nd place in the AL Central effectively tied with the Chicago White Sox (of all teams). It’s been a weird season. The Guardians have a negative run differential. Their bullpen certainly helps them stay competitive and overperform. However, the team will need to play better down the stretch in order to stay in first place. The Tigers are only 6 ½ games back and have Tarik Skubal again. The White Sox really seem to have a good thing going.
But, per usual, the Guardians have found a way to field a competitive team. If I told you Jose would miss over a month (and had not played that well before he went down, by his standards) but we were still tied for first I think we’d all take it. I hope the Front Office decides to be more aggressive. In the meantime, I am on another work trip and hope to catch Cleveland’s 3 All-Stars tomorrow night.
-BenjaminJ