Every week I keep expecting things to go wrong. I do not think the team stinks, or this is all a mirage, or some other conspiracy theory, but the baseball season is long: twice as long as the second longest professional league. I expect each team to hit a rough patch: the 2017 Cleveland Indians posted a losing record in May, and they won over 100 games. In fact, the 2017 season featured numerous bad stretches. So far the worst month of the 2024 season is June…and Cleveland has won 10 of their 17 games. I can only find two stretches of even 10 games where Cleveland posted a losing record this year: from April 24th to May 4th Cleveland lost 6 of 4, and from May 2nd to May 11th we went 6 of 4 again. Cleveland has barely lost any season series either: Cleveland has played 25 series so far, we’ve lost only 6 (against the New York Yankees, Atlanta, Houston, Chicago, Colorado and Toronto). It’s simply a stunning stretch of baseball.
I like the 2017 comparison: through 74 games that team was only 39-35…and a ½ game back of the Twins. The team did not resemble a juggernaut: yet, but they would by the end of the season. It’s a good lesson of humility in the face of a 162 game season, there’s regularly time to make up lost ground. But for that same reason I felt that a bad stretch is inevitable…but it has not come, the team feels immune to bad baseball. After losing a series to Toronto last weekend, Cleveland managed to take 2 of 3 from Seattle this week and now are on the precipice of sweeping Toronto in a grudge series.
It particularly impresses me because the Cleveland Guardians remain the youngest team in baseball; for the third consecutive season. The oldest regular in the lineup is Jose Ramirez at 31, second is Josh Naylor…at 27. The only other position player on the roster over 30 is Austin Hedges, and he’s the third catcher. It’s only slightly different on the pitching staff with only Carlos Carrasco (37), Ben Lively (32) and Scott Barlow (31) over 30; almost all the other players are pre-arbitration. But nothing has fazed this team, and they play hard. Almost every player on the roster seems to emulate Jose Ramirez’s all-out style, and it’s great to see. Cleveland enters Sunday with the fourth most wins in baseball, not often you can say that.
Considering the Trade Deadline: Needs
The season has not hit the halfway mark yet (although we’re close), and the tradeline is a little over 30 days away. It’s around this time you start to see deals at least percolate in the system. The most important question being: what do the Cleveland Guardians need? Here is where Cleveland ranks in terms of bWAR at each position in order from best to worst:
Left Field & Bullpen: 1st
Steven Kwan is currently batting near .400 with good defense, we all expected great things from him but he’s exceeding even those expectations. Emmanuel Clase has given up three earned runs…all season, and leads the league in saves.
Third Base: 5th
Not much to say here, Jose Ramirez is a superstar at the peak of his powers
Second Base: 7th
Again, not much to say here. Andres Gimenez has not replicated his ‘22 season offensively but remains the best defensive second baseman in the league.
First Base: 12th
Josh Naylor has been solid, but streaky, we could improve on him but not by much.
Center Field & Right Field: 16th
Our first weakness, but certainly an improvement over last season. Center Field & Right Field were black holes last year, and this year we’re in the middle of the pack. That’s an improvement, but there’s certainly room for more. Tyler Freeman has surprised us defensively given he never played the position in the minors, but has taken to center reasonably well. Will Brennan has a solid arm but until recently did not hit well. However over his last 21 games he’s batted .322/.394/.509 with 3 homers and 2 doubles. He could fit as the short half of a platoon.
Shortstop: 19th
Rocchio’s bat is anemic, but he’s been a strong defender at shortstop. At some point you want more than a .211 hitter with no power though.
Catcher: 26th
Bo Naylor has resembled MIke Zunino offensively this year, and this ranking is propped up by David Fry taking more at bats away from Bo as the year has progressed. Granted, Baseball-Reference does not include pitch framing (the ability of a catcher to frame a pitch and make a ball look like a strike to an umpire), where both Bo and Hedges score well.
Starting Pitching: 27th
Cleveland’s worst ranking, and unsurprising with Bieber out and Allen, Carrasco & McKenzie all posting middling seasons. Cleveland ranks last in innings pitched has an incredibly weak staff. Our stellar bullpen has made up for this flaw.
With this analysis out of the way, we can see Cleveland’s weakest spots are shortstop, catcher and the starting rotation; with some room to grow in the outfield as well. I did not mention DH (we rank 14th), but Cleveland could acquire a regular DH to slot into the lineup as well. This has some upside, but it would mean you lose some flexibility. The team has consistently given Jose Ramirez partial days off at DH, about every third day, to keep him fresh, and given Steven Kwan & Josh Naylor rest days as well.
One word on Jose Ramirez at DH, in an admittedly small sample size he has not hit well this year as a DH. He’s batting only .161/.235/.290 as a DH with only 1 home run. His career numbers aren’t much better. I am not saying this will continue, but we have over 400 plate appearances with Jose DHing, and so far the experiment has not gone well.
Potential Targets
Which brings us to the big puzzle: what is even available at the deadline this year? As of this writing only five teams are 10 games or more out of the playoffs: the White Sox, Rockies, Angels, Marlins, and Athletics. That’s a pretty steep discrepancy between potential buyers and sellers, which means we likely need to wait for teams to continue evaluating their rosters before we can conclude what’s available. But given what we know now here are three targets to ponder:
Taylor Ward, LAA
Ward is the kind of player every contender needs: nicely above average, and a role player. He currently starts every day for the Angels but in Cleveland I suspect he’d platoon with Will Brennan. He’s batting .357/.413/.536 against lefties this season, a trend for his career. Given the Guardians feature many left handed bats (Kwan, Andres and the Naylor Brothers), the team could use a righty to pair with Brennan.
Ward is not a sexy acquisition, but he’s a strong supplement to the roster. Cleveland does have options to pair with Brennan right now, but none have hit. Jonathan Rodriguez has looked overmatched since making his Major League debut, and the only other right handed hitting outfielders in the system are Gabriel Arias and Jhonkensky Noel (who has yet to make his debut). So Ward makes some sense, and could help us in one of our weaker positions.
Erick Fedde, CWS
There are a handful of starters on the market who could be of interest, but I think Fedde is both the most gettable and the most impactful (with some exceptions). Some potentially available starters will either be tough to get because of where they play (I think the Tigers will be hesitant to deal Jake Flaherty to an AL Central rival while there’s a chance they can make the playoffs) or salary (Jose Berrios & Justin Verlander both make a ton of money). I did consider Tyler Anderson, but I think his ERA is deflated by some luck.
Which leads me to Fedde. He also plays in the AL Central, but the White Sox aren’t going anywhere. After returning from the Korean League he’s learned how to limit walks (career average of 9.0%, this year: 6.2%),and upped his strikeout capability (career 18.2%, this year: 22.1%). He’s under contract for next year, which is good because Cleveland needs depth for 2025 too, but at a reasonable $7.5M salary. I think he makes the most sense of the players available right now.
Fedde is not an ace, 3.05 ERA this year in 16 starts, but he’s a reliable arm. The kind of guy you can hand the ball to and not worry too much about him. Very similar to what Ben Lively has provided us this year.
Brent Rooker, OAK
Rooker bloomed late, and actually made the All-Star team last year for Oakland. He has 13 homers this year, and can play the outfield, but he is best used as a DH. I like his power, and I think he balances the lineup (a topic for another day). He is also under team control through the 2028 season.
Of all the bats available: I think he’s the best. He draws a lot of walks (walk rate nearly 10%), and hits for power. Cleveland has struggled with walks this year, although they’ve hit for more power across the lineup. I would slot him in as the DH, and maybe spell in right field if you need to give Jose a break (which I would do less).
There will be more to say at the deadline as we get closer. There are plenty of players who could become available that are interesting if other teams fall off. The Toronto Blue Jays are in do or die mode right now, but if they keep losing they will have to reconsider at some point. I like J.D. Martinez & Luis Severino, although Martinez is a lefty which can complicate a heavy left handed lineup. If some crazy things happen like the Rangers falling off…could Max Scherzer become available? A guy can dream!
-Benjamin, J