Week 13: No Fluke
This team is good, and maybe there's no need to fix them
Last week I wrote how I keep expecting this team to go into a rut, again: not because I think the team is bad (I don’t), but because the baseball season is really long and at some point a bad stretch was imminent. Well, we came so close to what could have started a rut…and then pulled out of it. Cleveland won seven straight games, including a sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays, but most importantly took a crucial series against the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles series felt like a potential ALDS or ALCS matchup, with a heated playoff vibe. We lost the last game and then proceeded to lose two straight to Kansas City. Yesterday I felt certain: this is the start of the bad stretch (again, not panicked, just have not had one yet).
It wasn’t. We clobbered the Royals 7-2, with another great start from Tanner Bibee, home runs from Jose Ramirez & Jhonkensky Noel, and all around good offensive output from top to bottom. Cleveland does face a tough game to avoid a series loss with Seth Lugo on the mound for the Royals, facing off against Logan Allen, but the last time we faced Lugo we made him look silly. So I won't count it out. Regardless: at the official halfway point your Cleveland Guardians are 52-29, 23 games over .500, seven games over the Twins in the division, and on pace for 104 wins. I no longer think a cold streak is coming: this team is just that good this year.
How good is 104 wins? The last time a Cleveland team won 104 games was 1954, when they set the American League record for win percentage (which still stands) and won 111 games. Only three Cleveland teams have won 100 games or more:
-The previously mentioned 1954 Indians who won 111 games. That team featured three Hall of Fame starting pitchers in Bob Lemon, Early Wynn and Bob Feller, but the dirty secret was Feller (at 35) was at the end, he did not pitch in the World Series. Instead Mike Garcia & Art Houttemann were the other starters. The team was led offensively by Larry Doby.
-The 2017 Indians, who won 102 games, we all remember them
-The 1995 Indians
Pretty good company, and two out of the three times we made the World Series. This is misleading of course because the ‘54 and ‘95 Indians faced an easier route. The ‘54 Indians just went to the World Series with no playoffs, and the ‘95 Indians did not need to worry about a potential fourth series (not that I think Cleveland would have to play in the Wild Card series if we keep this pace up). But this is fun, so much fun, and cherish it because this rarely happens.
A Word on the All Star Voting
Phase 1 of the MLB All-Star balloting finished and two Guardians are up to become starters at the game: Jose Ramirez & Steven Kwan. Both need to win a second round of voting to become the starters (both are already in the game). Voting started today at noon, vote here for Kwan & Ramirez to represent the AL.
This is Jose Ramirez’s 6th All-Star appearance, and Kwan’s first.
Moves, Moves, Moves
Many of these moves are a bit older. I apologize for not posting on them sooner, but was busy with travel this week.
The Guardians made a lot of moves this week all things considered. Here are the moves in order:
First they swapped out Johnathan Rodriguez for Jhonkensy Noel. This makes a ton of sense. Jhonkensy Noel was pummeling the ball in AAA Columbus: .395/.359/.579 with 18 homers, while J-Rod was hitting under .150 with only one extra base hit. Cleveland still has a lot of minor leaguers they want to take a look at before the deadline. Noel is not at the top of Cleveland’s prospect rankings, but results are results. Daniel Schneemann is not a top prospect either, and he’s old for a prospect at 27 which is older than Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan. Who cares? He’s hammering the ball at the Major League level. So far the move has paid off as Noel has 2 homers in 3 games.
Next, Will Brennan hit the IL with an oblique injury. It’s not clear how long he will be out, but Brennan was heating up at the plate before the injury. Will was batting .382 over his last 10 games before landing on the IL. To replace him Cleveland recalled Jose Tena from AAA.
The Curry for McCaughan swap was simply for depth: McCaughan was up only to soak up innings when necessary (as was Curry), expect more of these kinds of moves as the year goes on as more teams are using expendable arms to pitch low leverage innings.
Finally: Cleveland signed Matthew Boyd, and placed him on the Injured List (more on Boyd in a bit), and swapped McCaughan with Eli Morgan. Again, not much to see here as McCaughan is only on this team to soak up low leverage innings. Eli Morgan is a better pitcher than that, he can be used in higher leverage situations, but I expect him to pitch mostly in long relief when needed. Zak Kent is a prospect in the Cleveland system, who I do not believe had much value, and has never pitched at the Major League level.
Sum Total:
OK, so the big picture for Cleveland here is:
They replaced Johnathan Rodriguez with Jhonkensy Noel
Will Brennan is hurt and Jose Tena took his spot on the roster
A lot of shuffling among Cleveland’s last man in the bullpen; the current occupant is Eli Morgan
On Matt Boyd
Cleveland signed Matthew Boyd to a Major League contract, he is recovering from Tommy John surgery. The deal is reportedly for the Major League minimum. The move to the IL is basically to give him some time to build up arm strength. My gut reaction to this is it is simply a cheap move to increase depth. Cleveland’s depth in the minors for starting pitchers is basically non-existent; only Xzavion Curry could realistically make starts for Cleveland, and while he was strong in the long relief role last year, he’s been pummeled in AAA (ERA of 6.94…) and not good in Cleveland either (ERA of 5.74), so that hardly inspires confidence. Boyd helps fix that, giving Cleveland another option in the event of an injury or poor performance.
Terry Pluto reported today the sorry state of starting pitching in Major League Baseball. In short: every team is losing starters to injury, and Cleveland is actually doing pretty well compared to the average. Prices for a starting pitcher are shockingly high, and only a handful of starters are even available. When demand is high and supply low: prices rise. Boyd fits in as a depth option, although I firmly expect him to pitch for Cleveland at some point.
How good of an option is Boyd? Tough to say, but he’s 33 and been around for a while largely for Detroit. I honestly forgot he was still in the league before Cleveland signed him. His career ERA is 4.94 (10% worse than average). Overall, my expectations are low. But then again, I would have said the same thing about Ben Lively and he’s been terrific for Cleveland this year, at age 32. Perusing his Baseball-Savant page to find nuggets leads me to one thing that stands out: his chase rate. Since 2020, Boyd’s chase rate ranked no worse than 75th percentile, so he’s clearly generating some swing and miss. He actually improved every year from 2020 to 2023.
Cleveland’s pitching factory lacks inputs right now, so I’ll take whatever I can get.
Parting Thoughts on the Deadline
I wrote last week about some targets Cleveland could look at for the deadline, but here’s a thought…what if Cleveland didn’t do anything at the deadline? Here’s the two latest callups from the minors:
Daniel Schneemann
.254/.354/.481 (OPS+ 134) with 2 HR, 2 2B, 2 3B in 65 PAs & 20 Games
Jhonkensy Noel
.333/.333/1.000 (OPS+ 263) with 2 HR in 6 PAs i& 3 Games
OK, these are small sample sizes, with Noel’s sample size being ridiculously short. But Schneemann is a lefty and Noel a righty. Both can play right field, meaning that could be your right field platoon right now. You could also platoon Schneemann in center with Tyler Freeman (who is not hitting well overall) and slot in Will Brennan as the lefty half of the right field platoon. Obviously this is premature but…if that production continues that could work.
As for starting pitching, Gavin Williams will come up soon and with Boyd in the fold, perhaps they don’t need a starter. If Cleveland can do with Boyd what they did with Lively that could be enough if Williams is the pitcher we all hope him to be, and Cleveland could still see improvements from Triston McKenzie & Logan Allen (would anyone be surprised if this team figured out how to fix two more young starters?)
Personally I still strongly prefer a move for an established outfielder; you are a contender for the best record in baseball. Go for the gold, don’t settle for ‘good enough’ and find the right move to improve, wherever possible, especially with the #1 overall pick. Cleveland’s farm system can take whatever hit needed to acquire a player. My dream hope is they trade for Max Scherzer, which is possible given the Rangers are nine games out of the AL West and 8 games out of the Wild Card.
-Benjamin, J