Two weeks ago I wrote how (to that point) Cleveland had avoided any real bumps in the road, they were on pace for one of the best records in franchise history and seemed destined to avoid any pitfalls, driving down the highway or a brand new driveway. The last two weeks felt more like driving down your typical Cleveland side street, in the spring before road work could begin in earnest. Cleveland has only lost two series over the past two weeks, but they both happened to be four game series against division rivals. We suffered our first losing 10 game stretch from June 26-July 6th (going 4-6 over that stretch), and another one from July 3rd to July 12th. Over the last 20 games Cleveland’s only posted a .500 record, which obviously isn’t like our season record at all.
Deep breaths, a bad stretch was inevitable. But looking at the stretch we can see some of the weaknesses of the team coming through, and the team has been tinkering around the edges of their roster to fix their issues and get a clearer picture of what they have before the trade deadline at the end of this month.
Moves & Counter-Moves: the Rotation
Let’s start with what Cleveland has done over the last week. The biggest external move was purchasing RHP Spencer Howard from the San Francisco Giants and optioning Logan Allen to the minors. This move is not major in and of itself, but indicative of where the Guardians find themselves this season. Logan Allen was a key rotation arm last year posting a 3.81 ERA in 125 innings, this year it’s been a different story. Allen struggled routinely, especially in the first inning, posting a 5.67 ERA.
What changed for Allen? Simple: he’s giving up more home runs. His home run rate increased from 1.1 HR/9 to 1.9 HR/9, and while he’s striking out and walking similar numbers of batters, he’s been slightly more hittable. Overall when you allow a few more baserunners, but more critically surrender almost twice as many home runs: you’re going to lose a lot of effectiveness. Allen simply lacks the stuff to allow many mistakes, and unfortunately a slight deterioration in his command spells doom. He’s going to the minors to try to correct his mistakes.
As for Spencer Howard? He’s a filler arm, a far more commonplace appearance in the modern game. His first start for Cleveland was disastrous; he barely survived three innings. Overall, the goal with Howard isn’t to fix the starting rotation, it's to slow the bleeding as the team searches for a long term answer. He may not even make another start for Cleveland, depending on what happens over the next week.
But the past 20 games have shown just how precarious the Cleveland rotation has been for the entire season. Over that stretch we’ve had numerous clunky starts, here are all the starts that were either less than 5 innings, or starts where we gave up more than 4 earned runs:
July 11th, Spencer Howard: 3 IP, 4 ER
July 9th, Ben Lively: 5.1 IP, 6 ER
July 7th, Carlos Carrasco: 5 IP, 3 ER
July 6h, Logan Allen: 4.1 IP, 2 ER
July 5th, Tanner Bibee: 4.1 IP, 4 ER
July 3rd, Gavin Williams: 4 IP, 5 ER
June 30th, Logan Allen: 4 IP, 3 ER
June 28th, Triston McKenzie: 2.1 IP, 5 ER
June 25h, Logan Allen: 3 IP, 6 ER
June 23rd, Triston McKenzie: 3 IP, 3 ER
That’s half the starts over that stretch. Over that stretch Cleveland only had 6 starts of 6 innings or more. This has been the constant problem for Cleveland all year: we rank last in starts of 100 pitches or more, and 23rd in innings per start (the only contending club below us is the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are 24th), and 27th in Quality Start % (starts of at least 6 innings and no more than 3 Earned Runs). I will readily admit that this statistic may be outdated since so few starters pitch deep into games, but even in the modern game: Cleveland is struggling with its rotation, it’s not just that the league no longer leans on its starters that much: we are doing so at an increasingly poor level.
On the bright side, one thing I missed last week with the holiday: Gavin Williams returned from the Injured List. After a clunker of an outing against the White Sox (his first start of the year), he pitched better, going 5 innings against both Detroit and Tampa Bay, surrendering only 1 run over the stretch. I am hopeful Williams can replicate or improve on his 2023 season.
Moves & Counter-Moves: the Lineup
The next big move, in this case entirely internal, replacing Gabriel Arias with Will Brennan. As far as I am concerned: Arias’ demotion has been a long time coming. I have not seen what value he brings to the roster for some time. Since 2023 Arias has batted .214/.269/.353 (OPS+ 73), he is not a good defender (although he does have amazing arm strength), and he does not run the bases particularly well. The only benefit to Arias right now is his versatility: he’s played every position on the diamond besides catcher. But, Cleveland already has two other players who can do this on the roster: Daniel Schneemann, and another player I will discuss in a bit. Furthermore Cleveland also boasts first time All-Star David Fry who can play both corner infield and outfield positions and catch. The Guardians do not need yet another versatile bench piece.
Will Brennan has not had a great season, and frankly has not been particularly good since his first cup of coffee in 2022. However, before his injury he showed some signs of life and his 2024 season has been an improvement on his 2023 season, so Brennan deserves at least one more chance before the Guardians finalize the roster for the remainder of the season post trade deadline.
More importantly for why Arias was expendable is the emergence of Angel Martinez. Martinez got promoted on July 4th (another move I missed over the holiday week last week), and since then he’s been the angel in the outfield (and infield) for Cleveland. Over his last 10 games Angel is batting .256/.386/.500 for the team. He’s done everything you could want a player to do over in spurts. He walked 8 times in his first 4 games, he’s hit 2 homers, and he’s played all over the place. He’s spent most of his time in center field spelling the struggling Tyler Freeman, but he’s subbed in for Jose Ramirez at third, and Andres Gimenez at second too.
Overall this has been the biggest surprise for me of the year: Cleveland’s ability to call up a young player and have them succeed immediately. The success is occasionally fleeting, but younger players have debuted and provided a jolt. Daniel Schneemann did it initially, smacking the ball around for a few weeks before cooling off a bit, Angel Martinez is doing it now, and Jhonkensky Noel did it by hitting that prodigious home run in his first at bat (he did it again yesterday). I am skeptical all of them will pan out, and frankly I am unsure if any one of them will turn into a starter, but at least one of Angel Martinez, Jhonkensky Noel, & Daniel Schneemann could become a role player.
Moves & Counter-Moves: the Bullpen
Finally, Sam Hentges was placed on the Injured List and Xzavion Curry was recalled. Curry is not a sexy arm, but he can provide length which, as we saw above, is something Vogt needs in his arsenal given how fragile our rotation has been for the year. More importantly for me, the bullpen has shown signs of fatigue or regression to the mean lately. Nick Sandlin has been shaky since his return, and Scott Barlow had a meltdown earlier in the week against Detroit.
We cannot expect the bullpen to pitch the lion’s share of innings, while also remaining as elite as they have over the course of a long season. It’s going to take shuttling arms back and forth, and perhaps even acquiring another arm from outside the organization, to ensure this unit remains healthy and effective into October. I remain concerned that the rotation’s weakness will eventually spill over into the bullpen as we tax it so much.
Jose Ramirez is in the Home Run Derby
For the second time in his career Jose will participate in the home run derby. I don’t have much to say about the derby; it’s not something I usually watch, but I will tune in to see if Jose can add an accolade to his resume. For the record: Jose has not hit a home run in a Major League Game since June 29th, perhaps the derby can help him get his power swing back.
The Draft
The 2024 MLB Draft is tonight and we have the first overall pick for the first time in franchise history. This is a huge story, and it will matter immensely to the organization, and I recommend following Next Year in Cleveland for the best news on the Guardians minor league system, and the draft. I do not follow college baseball, and I am not a scout, so I prefer to defer to others on their knowledge in this regard. But, three players have been mentioned as the most likely picks at #1:
Travis Bazzana, 2B out of Oregon State
Charlie Condon, 1B out of Georgia
JJ Wetherholt, SS out of West Virginia University
My only hope is this: pick the player who you think will be the best, and forget about the money. Unless a player’s signing bonus demand will be so immense it impedes on our ability to sign players the rest of our draft class: just take the best player. Cleveland has never picked 1st overall, and may never pick there again. My understanding is that what intrigues Cleveland about Wetherholt is that he would cost less to sign than Bazzana and Condon, which would save money allowing them to draft more aggressively in later rounds. For those who do not follow the draft in Major League Baseball the league caps how much a team can spend on their draft class, so signing one player overslot reduces the amount of money they can spend on others, which makes the cost more nuanced.
But I am not an expert, and I am not privy to what Cleveland thinks. The Guardians are notoriously tight lipped on their analysis, and almost nothing has leaked as to how they view each player. We will find out tonight at 7 PM.
State of the AL Central Race
Finally, Cleveland is still 4 ½ games ahead of the Minnesota Twins, who are playing excellent baseball and slowly creeping up on us; the Twins have the 4th best record in the American League and an iron grip on a Wild Card spot; we will likely see them in the postseason. The Royals have stabilized and are 7 games back, while the Tigers are 13 games back. This is still mostly a two team race between the Twins and Guardians, although the deadline could shake the division race up depending on how aggressive each team is on fixing their deficiencies.
The All-Star Break starts tomorrow, a break I think this team desperately needs given they have not had an off day since July 1st. It’s still been a great summer for Guardians fans.
-Benjamin, J