The Kansas City Royals won 8 of their last 10 games, they boast the third best record in the American League and, a year after losing over 100 games, are on pace to win 103. No Royals team has ever won 103 games in a season, and only one team won over 100 (the 1977 Royals).
Their success this year defies belief and gravity, especially when you consider their performance in the Wild Card Era (1994-Now), during that time only 4 Royals teams won more than they lost, they have only won the division once (every other franchise in the AL Central has won the division at least 4 times), and made the playoffs only twice. These are not only the worst marks in the AL Central: they’re among the worst marks in baseball. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates have posted fewer winning seasons (they have shockingly never won their division since 1994), while no team has made the playoffs less frequently. But the Royals surprised us all: they’re a contender in 2024.
How did they turn their team around? Simple Bobby Witt, Jr is playing like the superstar they paid him to be in the offseason. Salvador Perez is posting his best offensive season ever at 34. The pitching staff upgrades they pursued in the offseason succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. Seth Lugo went from being an OK reliever two years ago, to a decent enough starter last year, and now is the leading contender to win the AL Cy Young Award. Michael Wacha continues to provide solid innings and youngsters Brady Singer & Cole Ragans took steps forward. For a team which for years struggled to develop starters: they now may have the deepest rotation in the division.
But the big revelation is really Bobby Witt. The Royals signed him to a $288M extension and so far he’s been worth every penny. He’s on pace for nearly 50 doubles and 50 steals, and is the catalyst for the Royals offense. His batting line is .305/.361/.557 (OPS+ 154), and he is playing a fantastic shortstop. Overall: the Royals are now just a fun team to watch. Joe Posnanski and Molly Knight discussed how exciting the AL Central is now compared to being the worst division in baseball last year (oh how one year can change things), and just how fun the Royals are: and Bobby Witt really is the reason why Kansas City may be the hottest ticket in baseball (besides the potential of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift showing up for a game).
But when comparing the two Joe Posnanski remarked that he felt KC may be better positioned to win the division because no other team in the AL Central has a guy like Witt who can carry them for a week or a month. I agree with Joe: I don’t think Steven Kwan could maintain the pace he held for the first month of the year, and I also agree that the Guardians were winning the division in spite of Jose Ramirez not being himself in April. But, over the last 10 games, I think this calculus has changed.
Cleveland is Scorching Hot
Over the last 10 games Cleveland has gone 9-1, and shockingly only gained a single game over the Royals during that period. The reason why Cleveland went 9-1? Pretty simple: after a fairly middling start, Jose Ramirez is now playing like Jose Ramirez. Over the past 10 games Jose has hit .375/432/.825 with 5 home runs and 3 doubles, and has walked as much as he struck out. He’s sizzling just like he did during the 2020 season when he got robbed of the AL MVP by Jose Abreu, and he’s just pulverizing pitchers and bending them to his will.
Tom Hamilton said it best on May 21st when facing the Mets. Cleveland was up 3-2 in the second game of the series, and Jose came up with two outs and a runner on first. Everyone (myself included) thought they’d walk him and pitch to Josh Naylor who’s been scuffling lately. Tom immediately asked: “why are they pitching to Jose?” I honestly had no idea, and still don’t, but predictably Jose worked it to a full count and then pummeled the ball to right field (the ball wasn’t even in the zone). Everything Jose touches right now is getting smacked: hard, and he’s the driving force behind this Cleveland offense.
But the AL Central this year is boiling down to Cleveland and Kansas City, a dynamic few expected. Out of the 30 Fangraphs staff members only 3 predicted either Cleveland or Kansas City would make the playoffs (compared to 19 for Minnesota and 7 for Detroit), a similar dynamic occurred in ESPN with 5 people picking the Guardians and Royals compared to 16 for the Twins out of 26. Both teams are red hot, and largely due to their superstars playing like superstars.
Witt v Ramirez
Buster Olney tweeted out this nice little comparison between Jose and Bobby Witt Saturday morning. Both are projecting right now for superb seasons, with Jose on pace for over 40 home runs and Witt on pace for 196 hits and a superb all around game. It would be hyperbole to suggest the AL Central will come down to who plays better: Jose or Bobby, but I do think the dynamic is exciting to compare over the course of the year.
The more important insight for me is that both teams do have players who can drag their team on their backs if necessary. Both players are quite capable of just tearing down opposing teams. Jose isn’t really dragging Cleveland right now because the Guardians are simply destroying their opponents, but Jose’s offense has been so good that he certainly could have won some of these games on his own if he had to, and he has other skills like when Jose straight up stole home to give the Guardians the lead. Witt can clearly do the same thing, and I look forward to when the Guardians face the Royals later this month.
Pitching, Pitching, Pitching
Jose Ramirez returning to form is the most important dynamic we’ve seen so far this season. Jose is a Marvel and I am so thrilled to get to watch him torture opposing pitchers again. But Cleveland desperately needs to figure out how to get its starting pitchers back in form. Cleveland’s starting rotation remains frighteningly weak and, more importantly, quite fragile. Our current rotation is: Logan Allen (ERA of 4.89), Tanner Bibee (ERA of 3.93), Xzavion Curry (ERA of 1.93 in 2 starts in Cleveland, but ERA over 8 in 6 starts in Columbus), Ben Lively (ERA 2.84), and Triston McKenzie (ERA of 3.44).
Frankly some of those ERAs are suspect. Triston McKenzie is perhaps the most concerning. While Triston remains an incredibly talented pitcher, he’s struggled with his control all season and is posting the highest walk rate, and lowest K-rate, of his young career. The velocity on his fastball remains mired in the low 90s, and during his last start frequently slipped in the high 80s. Given the seriousness of the injury to his elbow: I am both skeptical he can continue getting good results, especially when the BABIP on balls in play hit off him is quite low (.219). Barring some improvement of his stuff I think we should expect regression from Triston. But the other starters have their own problems:Curry, as previously mentioned, struggled immensely in Columbus, Ben Lively is 32 and had a career ERA over 5 heading into the season, and Logan Allen has a problem keeping the ball in the park.
Cleveland’s best hope for an upgrade in the rotation is Gavin Williams who continues to rehab from a Spring Training injury. When he comes back Cleveland will hope for him to not only return to his 2023 form, but improve on it. Gavin’s fastball is the fastest in the rotation, along with a solid offering of off-speed pitches. If any pitcher in the system can break out as an ace: it’s Gavin.
Personally I think Cleveland will need to acquire at least one more starting pitcher. The depth in Cleveland right now consists of Carlos Carrasco (who is 37 and currently on the shelf with a neck injury), and that’s about it. Cleveland can hope Joey Cantillo will be available later in the year, but that is to be determined. Frankly even if both Cookie and Joey get healthy, I still think Cleveland will need another starter. The rotation is both too fragile and not good enough to carry this team further.
Leading the Central
Regardless, Cleveland remains on top in the AL Central, and with Jose now hitting like Jose, and the league’s best bullpen: there is every reason for us to expect the Guardians to continue at least competing with Kansas City for the AL Central crown. Steven Kwan starts his rehab assignment in Lake County today, and hopefully can return the first week of June. There are plenty of reasons for optimism at the Corner of Carnegie and Ontario, and hopefully as we get closer to the All-Star break we can expect some reinforcements.
-Benjamin, J